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Climate Change:
Briefing, New York, 26 August 2009

Briefing on the Scientific Basis for Climate Policy by Dr. Rajendra Pachauri, Nobel Laureate & Chair of IPCC

26 August 2009, 12:00-1:00pm
New York, ECOSOC Chamber

"... Recent observations indicate that we are perhaps moving on the trajectory which would lead to the higher end of the projected rise in temperature range (+ 6.4oC)...
Dr. Rajendra PachauriIPCC projections in the 4th Assessment Report (AR4) assessed plausible scenarios indicating temperature increases between 1.1 - 6.4 degrees C by the end of this century, as well as best estimates of 1.8 degrees at the lower end and 4.0 at the upper end respectively.

With the 0.74 degrees C increase in temperature over the 20th century already in place, the lower end best case scenario puts us at 2.54 degrees C overall increase by the end of this century, which could result in a humanitarian and ecological disaster.

Recent observations indicate that we are perhaps moving on the trajectory which would lead to the higher end of the projected range (a rise of 6.4 degrees).

Key Points

  • Attaining the G8 commitment to cap temperature rise at 2 degrees Celsius would require global carbon emissions to peak in six years, by 2015 as clearly brought out in the AR4.
  • Even at a stabilization that limits temperature rise at 2 degrees Celsius, sea level rise due to thermal expansion alone will be 0.4-1.4 meters, enough to pose a dire threat to several low lying islands and creating the possibility of tens of millions of environmental refugees.
  • "... Mitigation to stabilize GHG concentrations and avoid the worst climate change impacts may cost at the most less than 3% of global GDP in 2030...
    The technology now exists to mitigate emissions of greenhouse gases on a stringent basis. What is needed is a framework of suitable policies and the will to change our lifestyles and implement required solutions. Public awareness and action is needed to motivate political leaders to action.
  • Mitigation to stabilize GHG concentrations and avoid the worst climate change impacts may cost at the most less than 3% of global GDP in 2030, but there would be substantial co-benefits from doing so. Not taking action could lead to humanitarian disaster.

Next in the briefing series

Next in this briefing series, DESA, in partnership with key organizers, will bring Professor Hans Joachim Schellnhuber, to discuss "Copenhagen 2009: The Fierce Urgency of Now". This event will be held 2nd of Nov 2009.